September 2009
The VIBAT London project has been published setting out how London can achieve deep CO2 reduction targets in transport. A range of future year scenarios have been tested, with policy pathways developed towards a 60 per cent reduction in transport CO2 emissions by 2025, rising to 80 per cent by 2050.
The VIBAT London project (Visioning and Backcasting for Transport in London) is supported by the University College London’s two-year knowledge exchange programme, UrbanBuzz. The project is led by Halcrow (Dr Robin Hickman and Olu Ashiru), in association with Oxford University transport studies unit (Professor David Banister), Space Syntax, Transport for London and the Greater London Authority.
Dr Robin Hickman, Halcrow’s project manager, explains: “The building of sustainable communities consistent with reducing climate change impacts and minimising CO2 emissions poses serious difficulties for transport practitioners. Transport is currently the sector which finds it most difficult to reduce carbon emissions. Strategic targets tend to be adopted with little knowledge as to how they are likely to be achieved.”
He adds: “The findings from this study demonstrate how effective packaging of a wide range of interventions – including promoting low emission vehicles, investment in public transport, walking and cycling, behavioural change measures, promoting ecological driving and slower speeds, and freight planning – can help London move towards a 60 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2025 and onto even deeper cuts beyond.”
This project has developed a backcasting approach to transport planning in London – visioning a sustainable transport future for 2050 and 2025 and “casting back” to the present day in terms of steps required to implement a carbon efficient transport system.
Robin continues: “The project develops a simulation model of transport and carbon emissions in London (TC-SIM). TC-SIM is one of the first city-based bespoke simulation models available in this field, and is an enormously useful tool in developing ‘strategic conversations’ – these are concerned with the major decisions that need to be made, and the trade-offs involved, in strategy selection and investment. Only by improving our engagement with decision-makers and the public can we improve the ‘ownership’ of potential future travel lifestyle changes. Strategic CO2 reduction targets are extremely challenging and the current trends imply that these will be very difficult to meet. The positive results from our analysis show that deep reductions are possible in the city context – however an important point is that they are dependent on a very successful application, ‘buy in’ to, and take up of, a range of policy measures.”
Robin concludes “Scenario testing methodologies are becoming central to transport planning as we seek to understand the implications of economic volatility and financial constraints, and how to address potentially competing environmental, economic and social inclusion goals. Cities such as London are certainly providing a lead for others in responding to climate change.”
The project complements work done in a variety of international contexts by the study authors.The simulation modelling is applicable at a variety of scales – for different cities, towns, regions and even at country-wide level.
VIBAT London Project – technical overview
The VIBAT London project applies a web-based simulation model (TC-SIM) to help simulate the choices available in terms of moving towards carbon efficient transport – helping to assess how multiple policy measures can be optimally packaged to achieve ambitious carbon reduction targets.
A series of potential policy packages (PP) are identified as part of the study – PP1: low emission vehicles; PP2: alternative fuels; PP3: pricing regimes; PP4: public transport; PP5: walking and cycling; PP6: strategic and local urban planning; PP7: information and communication technologies; PP8: smarter choices; PP9: ecological driving and slower speeds; PP10: long distance travel substitution; and PP11: freight transport. Each can be selected within the simulation model, implemented at various levels of intensity, and aggregate carbon reduction impacts assessed against the desired targets.